Rs narrowly hang on to Ohio House seat

Republican Jean Schmidt eked out a 52-48 victory over Dem and Iraq vet Paul Hackett Tuesday in a special election for a vacant House seat in Ohio.

But it should give the Rs some pause about the '06 mid-term elections.

The former Republican Congressman, Rob Portman, had carried the district with 70% of the vote, and President Bush got 64% there last November. AP story.

Political newsletter editor Charlie Cook, as close as we come these days to an informed but impartial observer, wrote this before the polls opened: Cook Report.

Bottom line: Schmidt, the Republican, is still favored to win the election, but don't rule out the possibility of an upset, given the vagaries of August special election voter turnout and the problems unique to Ohio this year. But even assuming a GOP win tonight, the margin of victory can give us some insight into just how radioactive the governor's troubles and the "time for a change" sentiment in the state will be for other Republicans in the Buckeye State next year.

If Schmidt's victory margin is in double digits, this tells us that there is not much of an anti-GOP wind in Ohio right now. If the margin is say six to nine points for Schmidt, then there is a wind, but certainly no hurricane. A Schmidt win of less than five points should be a very serious warning sign for Ohio Republicans that something is very, very wrong, while a Hackett victory would be a devastating blow to the Ohio GOP.