Bad news for Bush = good news for Walker?

Bruce Murphy, editor of Milwaukee Magazine, thinks President Bush's horrific poll numbers -- generally seen as terrible news for Republican candidates in 2006 -- could actually have a silver lining for Scott Walker.

Walker, the Milwaukee County exec, isn't part of the DC/Congressional mess, Murphy's argument goes, while Mark Green, his primary opponent for governor, will have a much harder time getting any distance from the Pres, since he's been voting with him every day in the House for the last five years.

Problems with that analysis?

The biggest is that Republican primary voters probably still like Bush today and will be loyal to their President in 2006, too. Convincing Republicans that being close to Bush is a bad thing is likely to be a very hard sell.

Until now, Green and Walker have emphasized their ties to Bush.

Green's campaign website bio, complete with photo of Green, Bush and a football jersey, says:

Green has developed a close relationship with the White House, working with the president and his team to advance the Bush agenda – from the president's Faith-Based Initiative to counterterrorism policy – on Capitol Hill. For the last six years, Green has also served on the House Republican Leadership team as a majority whip, operating together with the House speaker and others to keep the Republican conference united during difficult floor fights with Democrats.

Walker's website bio is less effusive about Bush, but stresses his Bush-Cheney credentials:

Scott is also an active Republican. In the early 1990s, he was chairman of the 5th Congressional district Republican Party and a member of the executive board of the Republican Party of Wisconsin. He served as the chair of the platform committee, and in 1998 he was the chair of the state convention. In 2000, he was the Bush/Cheney county chair and in 2004, he was one of the statewide co-chairs for the Bush/Cheney campaign. . .

You'll find photos of Walker warming up the crowd at Bush-Cheney events, but no shot of him with the President. (As I recall there was a Bush photo on his campaign website when he ran for county exec last year.) Did he see the Bush disaster coming? I'm sure the Dems will have no trouble finding photos and reminding the voters of Walker's role in the Bush campaign, should he become the nominee.

Green's biggest problem may not be George Bush but his unquestioning, unytielding support for the war in Iraq. Green founded the Victory in Iraq caucus. At the rate things are going, having that war hung around his neck could be a lot more disastrous than standing too close to George W. Bush.

But again, we are talking about a Republican primary.

If Walker can make electability an issue, without looking like he's running against Bush (while he does just that), maybe there's a slight benefit.

But the base Repubican primary voters want red meat, we're told. To win the primary, you need to veer to the right. (There's actually not much veering room for Green or Walker anyway. They're already hugging the right shoulder of the road.) Running away from Bush, no matter how unpopular he is, may not sit well with the base. (God love 'em, that base may help us re-elect Jim Doyle).

One thing is certain: Whoever survives the primary is not likely to be putting "Republican" on his campaign commercials, literature, and signs. You can take that prediction to the bank.