Falk v. Lautenschlager could be hot race

It appears that Kathleen Falk, the Dane County exec, is on her way toward entering the race for attorney general. A "draft" movement by 10 Democrats in the Assembly is the first sign that she's probably made a decision.

If she does jump in -- and I think she will -- it will come as a relief to many Dems who supported AG Peg Lautenschlager in 2002 but believe she has too much negative baggage to win the general election in 2006.

Lautenschlager has given no indication she would even consider getting out of the race. That sets the stage for hotly contested primaries in both parties next September -- Lautenschlager-Falk and the Republican Paul Bucher-J. B.Van Hollen matchup. [The Rs are currently at the level of arguing over who has the endorsement of the Florence County DA.]

Some of the people agitating for a Falk candidacy mistakenly think the primary will be easy for her. In fact, it will be a very tough race -- but a winnable one if she runs a good campaign, which she is capable of doing.

Lautenschlager is the incumbent, though, and in a Democratic primary will have some hard-core loyalists and some immeasurable sympathy vote because of her battle with cancer. Even her drunk driving arrest may get her some sympathy from Dems who believe she was treated too harshly by the media.

Lautenschlager's campaign says its polling shows her with a solid lead over Falk in the primary, at 39%-27% among "Democratic primary voters" and 43%-29% among self-identified Democrats. Her poll was done mid-October, post-Vang murder trial, by Garin Hart Yang.

What's hard to decipher is how the sample found 286 "Democratic primary voters" in a total sample of 504, when only 192 identified themselves as Dems. Apparently anyone who didn't self-identify as a Republican was asked what primary he/she usually vote in, and 80% said the Democratic primary. It's true we have crossover voting in Wisconsin, but the Republican ballot will be the hot ticket item, with primaries for both gov and AG. That makes those numbers somewhat suspect.

In any event, Lautenschlager's people say she's sitting pretty in the primary, even after they tell people about her DUI, abuse of her state car, and other negatives. (They also told people Lautenschlager's positives, and that Falk has never been a prosecutor, which is a hurdle for someone who wants to be AG.) Lautenschlager's people say her lead increased after that, but wouldn't provide the numbers.

They also say she runs better against the Republicans than Falk does, although other polls have said just the opposite. (WisPolitics poll and Bucher poll.)

Falk undoubtedly has done her own poll and found a different, more encouraging set of numbers. But if she has those numbers, she is wisely using them for internal strategic purposes, not to spin the media. Background: Beware of candidates bearing polls.

She's run statewide, for governor in 2002, and knows what it takes. She also knows that most of the positive exposure has dissipated over three years, and that she will have to re-introduce herself to voters. And she knows it's a risk to run.

The only guarantee in politics is that there is no sure thing.

If Falk gets in, Democrats are likely to see a very competitive race for their party's nomination.

I continue to believe that if Falk wins the primary she will be the stronger candidate in November. The primary could be the tougher test. One good thing -- the Republican nominee will be as broke and exhausted the day after the primary as the Democratic winner. Then it's an eight-week sprint.