Monday, September 11, 2006

The world according to Zogby

It's no secret what I think of Zogby polls. Ask President Kerry about them.

But, for the record, Governor Jim Doyle leads Congressman Mark Green 49.4%-45.7% in a new Zogby/Wall Street Journal poll.

No poll in the world can give you accurate numbers with tenths of a per cent; that is a joke. Any pollster who claims that kind of precision is a fraud. Zogby says its margin of error is plus/minus 3.5%, and in truth it is probably much higher, given their use of online respondents. But even using their number, that is a potential swing of 7% from the numbers they report.

Nonetheless, with a 3.5% margin of error, Zogby said Doyle has "lost ground" since their last poll. Doyle led by 6.5% last time and 3.6% now. That's well within the margin of error.

Doyle's under the magic 50%, it's true. But Zogby says Sen. Herb Kohl only has 50.3%, to 35.5% for Robert Gerald Lorge. If you believe that, I'd like to make a small wager on the November election with you.

Meanwhile, Doyle can celebrate that he's only a point behind Kohl, not a bad place to be.

Clearly, this exercise is worthless -- just like the poll.

8 Comments:

At 11:40 PM, Blogger XOut said...

You and I have known all along that this race has a margin of about 5% excluding the error margin.

Zogby is in the right zone at least.

Of course you also know that during the last several weeks your team is on track to hang on to their congressional minority as well.

What remains interesting to all of us is the 8th CD. I am not willing to buy you a cheese-wheel for predicting that one and I don't know what you are willing to put up. Care to wager - er... for charity of course.

 
At 7:46 AM, Blogger Paul_Robeson said...

It seems odd to me that there are so few undecideds. It also seems odd that Green would gain ground when he's been been getting absolutely hammered on all fronts because of the EB ruling.

Speaking of which: What's the deadline for the PAC repayment, and what is its relationship to the date of the first debate (which is this Friday, I think)? Could they possibly be the same day?

 
At 7:57 AM, Blogger Paul_Robeson said...

OK, I think the money is due Saturday (this according to the little "countdown clock" operated by the DPW), and the debate is Friday in Waukesha. Green being Green, he probably will hold onto the money until the last possible moment on Saturday, giving Doyle a rhetorical sledgehammer for the debate. ("When are you going to fork over the money, Congressman Green?")

Just perfect. Thanks again, Mark.

 
At 10:07 AM, Blogger GWC shadow said...

ok Paul. When the courts reverse the SEBs decision, Doyle will be done.

 
At 10:32 AM, Blogger Paul_Robeson said...

I am not sure about that for a few reasons, GWC.

First, there is the nature of the review. The courts probably are not going to assess the merits of of Green's claim but rather determine if the EB abused its discretion in enforcing the PAC limits on Green. Courts generally let administrative agencies interpret their own rules. So he's got a tough case to make

Second, if Green "wins" in the courts, what can he say about his "victory"? That he now gets to use even more special-interest money than Doyle? Somehow I don't know that voters are really going to do back-flips over that.

 
At 10:38 AM, Blogger Dad29 said...

mnnnhhnnnhhhhh...

Nationally, the (generic)Pubbies' poll numbers have been gaining (rapidly) since roughly August.

Don't count any chickens.

 
At 4:13 AM, Blogger SmartVoter2006 said...

Heard about the emails to the EB from the Governor's office telling them how politically it will help Doyle if Green loses, to vote against Green. The EB is known for being corrupt as all hell, dont be surprised that those blind fools on the EB did what they did. The Courts will speed this through and if the Judge is a Republican, Green win, if a Democrat Doyle wins. Plain and simple. Doubt either will appeal past that, but take a look at Jensen and his ignorant appeal. These big money corrupt politicians have no shame. Count on the loser at the Circuit Court level appealing for sure, after all, we are talking about a Million Dollars!! Speaking of Jensen, his protege Hundertmark is gonna be the anchor that sinks Green once her secrets are revealed. Like her mentors Bonnie Ladwig, Scott Jensen and Steve Foti, Jean Hundertmark belongs in the exodus category, not the promotion list. She will be the end of Green.
Here is how I see it if the voters wake up:
Governor: Eisman 33%, Doyle 32%, Green 32%, Masel write-ins 3%;
US Senate: Lorge 34%, Voegler 33%, Kohl 30%, Masel write-ins 3%;
Let’s elect the honest people, not the big money special interest careeer politicians who are controlling us with brainwashing TV ads.

 
At 4:36 AM, Blogger SmartVoter2006 said...

Have you heard about the emails to the EB from the Governor's office telling them how politically it will help Doyle if Green loses, to vote against Green. The EB is known for being corrupt as all hell, dont be surprised that those blind fools on the EB did what they did. The Courts will speed this through and if the Judge is a Republican, Green win, if a Democrat Doyle wins. Plain and simple. Doubt either will appeal past that, but take a look at Jensen and his ignorant appeal. These big money corrupt politicians have no shame. Count on the loser at the Circuit Court level appealing for sure, after all, we are talking about a Million Dollars!! Speaking of Jensen, his protege Hundertmark is gonna be the anchor that sinks Green once her secrets are revealed. Like her mentors Bonnie Ladwig, Scott Jensen and Steve Foti, Jean Hundertmark belongs in the exodus category, not the promotion list. She will be the end of Green.
Here is how I see it if the voters wake up:
Governor: Eisman 33%, Doyle 32%, Green 32%, Masel write-ins 3%;
US Senate: Lorge 34%, Voegler 33%, Kohl 30%, Masel write-ins 3%;
Let’s elect the honest people, not the big money special interest career politicians who are controlling us with brainwashing TV ads.

 

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