The world according to Zogby
It's no secret what I think of Zogby polls. Ask President Kerry about them.
But, for the record, Governor Jim Doyle leads Congressman Mark Green 49.4%-45.7% in a new Zogby/Wall Street Journal poll.
No poll in the world can give you accurate numbers with tenths of a per cent; that is a joke. Any pollster who claims that kind of precision is a fraud. Zogby says its margin of error is plus/minus 3.5%, and in truth it is probably much higher, given their use of online respondents. But even using their number, that is a potential swing of 7% from the numbers they report.
Nonetheless, with a 3.5% margin of error, Zogby said Doyle has "lost ground" since their last poll. Doyle led by 6.5% last time and 3.6% now. That's well within the margin of error.
Doyle's under the magic 50%, it's true. But Zogby says Sen. Herb Kohl only has 50.3%, to 35.5% for Robert Gerald Lorge. If you believe that, I'd like to make a small wager on the November election with you.
Meanwhile, Doyle can celebrate that he's only a point behind Kohl, not a bad place to be.
Clearly, this exercise is worthless -- just like the poll.
posted by xoff @ 9:49 PM
2 comments
2 Comments:
You and I have known all along that this race has a margin of about 5% excluding the error margin.
Zogby is in the right zone at least.
Of course you also know that during the last several weeks your team is on track to hang on to their congressional minority as well.
What remains interesting to all of us is the 8th CD. I am not willing to buy you a cheese-wheel for predicting that one and I don't know what you are willing to put up. Care to wager - er... for charity of course.
mnnnhhnnnhhhhh...
Nationally, the (generic)Pubbies' poll numbers have been gaining (rapidly) since roughly August.
Don't count any chickens.
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