Meet the new Zogby poll, unreliable as the old Zogby poll

Before anyone gets too elated or alarmed over the latest Zogby poll on the governor's race, which shows Gov. Jim Doyle in a dead heat with either of his Republican opponents, let's do a little reality check.

The numbers are virtually identical to the Zogby poll of a month ago. That should come as no surprise, since Zogby, unlike real polls that use a new randomly selected sample each time, has "regulars" in the sample, which should keep the numbers consistent. It's a poll done online with people who have volunteered to participate.

Last month's poll was quickly discredited when the conservative Wisconsin Policy Research Institute released its own poll, showing Doyle with comfortable leads over both Rep. Mark Green and Milwaukee County Exec Scott Walker. This time, with no independent poll to compare it to, Zogby may be taken as credible. But its numbers are no more reliable now than they were a month ago.

But the Green campaign seized on them again, with his campaign manager saying: “These results reflect the fact that Jim Doyle doesn’t share our Wisconsin values or our priorities." Well, if Green is tied with him, it doesn't look like he shares Wisconsin values or priorities either, does it?

Walker's campaign may be wishing it hadn't trashed the Zogby poll last month, when it showed Green doing slightly better than Walker. Walker campaign manager Bruce Pfaff told WisPolitics.com at the time:

"If Zogby had any credibility or ability to prognosticate, John Kerry would be president today, wouldn't he?" In 2004, Zogby predicted Kerry would beat George W. Bush. Pfaff said the poll consists only of people who have computers and the Internet and sign themselves up on the Zogby site. "Everybody is in the same margin of error," said Pfaff. "So even there what we take from it is people who have Internet connections don't like Jim Doyle."

Well said.

UPDATE: Walker's campaign likes Zogby's numbers better now.