Happy days are here again

Voters in 24 Wisconsin communities, small and large, have expressed their support for withdrawal of US troops from Iraq. putting Wisconsin in the national spotlight.

And Larry Nelson is the new mayor of Waukesha.

How shall we rub it in? Let me count the ways this victory is sweet:

1. Nelson was outspent perhaps by as much as 3-1.

2. Republican radio bashed Nelson regularly.

3. The Journal Sentinel endorsed Nischke.

4. Nelson opposes Bride of TABOR; Nischke supports it.

5. Jeff Wagner of WTMJ-AM is, fortunately for him, not a betting man:

So how will this all play out on April 4th? Assuming that neither candidate has a major meltdown between now and the election, my guess is that Nischke slaughters Nelson….If I were a betting man though (actually, I am a betting man) I'd bet that when the smoke clears on the evening of April 4th, it will be Mayor-elect Nischke with over 60% of the vote.

6. Jessica McBride:

Anyone else think the Waukesha mayor’s race is just the county executive race redux?
In corner one, playing the Dan Vrakas role, Republican state Rep. Ann Nischke, a pro tax freeze candidate.

In corner two, playing the Jim Dwyer role, Alderman Larry Nelson, a Democrat and anti tax freeze guy.

Technically, the mayor’s race is a nonpartisan race. Well, the county executive’s race was nonpartisan too...

So who do I think will win the Waukesha mayor’s race? I give the Democrats credit for trying.

7. James Widgerson:

Predictions
City of Waukesha: State Representative Ann Nischke (R) defeats Alderman Larry Nelson (D) to become the next mayor of Waukesha.

Nischke benefits from the largely Republican makeup of the city. In the last Presidential election, Republican straight-ticket voters in the City of Waukesha made up 64% of the straight-ticket ballots cast. Republican US Senate candidate Tim Michels won the City of Waukesha in 2004 54% to 45%.

State Representative Ann Nischke also has the advantage of geography. Her district covers most of the City of Waukesha. Alderman Nelson represents one aldermanic district.

Arguably, Nelson has run the better campaign, and has even demonstrated a willingness to go negative in the closing days of the campaign with his direct mail and telephone calls.

But the race has become so partisan and the two candidates have become so identified with their parties that it would be still be a major upset if Nelson wins. I predict Nischke wins with close to 55% of the vote.

I suspect we'll find a few more embarrassing predictions tomorrow.

So what happened, aside from the right wing greatly misreading the electorate, and forgetting that the City of Waukesha is in Waukesha County, but is not filled with the kind of hard-core wingnuts that populate much of the rest of the county?

For one thing, a group called Progressive Majority got involved early and helped Nelson with fundraising, strategy, planning, mail and phone programs, and more. The group also put together a strong labor member communications program. Much of this was under the right-wing radar.

It all bodes well as Progressive Majority gears up for the fall. The group had targeted 25 local races on Tuesday across the state. Nelson's was the big one.