Monday, May 01, 2006

Online 'polls' -- are they really polls?

(This one has been in the pending basket for awhile, but the points are valid even if the links are a little dated.-- Xoff.)

It's no secret that I think online polls are mostly worthless, and that a lot of what passes for public "polling" is highly suspect. Here's another take from Taegan Goddard of Political Wire:

A Note on Polls

The Hotline's Chuck Todd recently warned readers about online polls. "We don't publish or acknowledge the existence of these numbers in any of our outlets because we are just not comfortable that online panels are reliable indicators." Stuart Rothenberg followed up noting that pollsters "have not yet figured out how to conduct online polls in a way that’s accurate."

Since they are two of the most trusted political observers, their conclusions prompted several Political Wire readers to ask why we continue to highlight online and automated polls such as those from Zogby Interactive, Rasmussen Reports or Survey USA. The reason is that no perfect poll exists and that all polling methodolgies contain flaws. In time, we'll find which work and which do not. However, we think the polls provide valuable data for readers if properly interpreted.

In fact, pollster Mark Blumenthal reviewed the controversy in Public Opinion Quarterly noting that "the jury is still out, but we may find that automated surveys are most appropriate for very short surveys that forecast elections, monitor reactions to breaking news, or track opinion on a few discrete variables, while live interviewers remain more appropriate for longer, more complex studies that require open-ended probing, clarification, or more than a minute or two of respondents’ time."

I trust most Political Wire readers are smart enough to take the polling data presented here for what it is. I welcome your thoughts.

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