Will Bush negatives sink Gard, Green?

Will the November election be a referendum on President Bush?

Democrats hope that it is. Republicans pray that it's not.

Chris Cillizza of the WashPost parses the polls in his blog, The Fix:

A Fox News/Opinion Dynamics asked whether voters were more likely to back a candidate who supports Bush or one who opposes him. Twenty percent said they would be more inclined to support a pro-Bush politician while 38 percent said they would favor a candidate who opposed the president. Thirty-nine percent said how a candidate felt toward the president would not affect their vote.

Looking inside this survey's numbers, nearly two-in-three Democrats tested (63 percent) said they would prefer a candidate who opposed Bush while less than one in three (31 percent) said a candidate's support for Bush would make no difference. One-in-three independents said they would be more inclined to support an anti-Bush candidate (37 percent) while just 13 percent said a candidate who backed Bush would be more likely to win their vote. Roughly half of all Republicans (44 percent) said they were more likely to back a candidate who backs Bush; 42 percent said it was not an issue.

The most recent Washington Post-ABC News poll posed a similar question, asking whether 2006 will be a vote to show support for or opposition to the president and his policies. Twelve percent said their vote would be aimed at sending a message of support to Bush while 30 percent said it would be to express their opposition. Roughly 60 percent said it wouldn't be a factor.

Presumably, this is more important when voters are looking at a Congressional candidate -- like a John Gard, who's had Dick Cheney, more unpopular than Bush, in to campaign for him.

But Wisconsin Republicans also have a candidate for governor, Mark Green, who has been a loyal and enthusiastic Bush soldier, voting with him down the line. When will we see the first ad with Green morphing into W? And what will Green say -- "I never heard of this Bush guy; I wouldn't know him if he knocked on my door?" Oh, no, that was Ambramoff.