Poll shows tight governor's race -- and John Kerry beating George Bush

I said here recently that my money is on Jim Doyle to win reelection in 2006, but I am not giving any points. I expect it to be a tight race, as his last race and the last two presidential races have been in Wisconsin.

A new Zogby poll bears that out, showing Doyle in a virtual dead heat with either Mark Green or Scott Walker. See for yourself.

Whenever I post poll results that support my position or opinion, my faithful right-wing readers pick it to pieces, nitpicking the methodology and conclusions. One even suggested recently that no sample of less than 1,000 people was meaningful statewide, forcing me to point out that 1,000 -- not 50,000 -- is a typical sample for a national poll. (Statewide are usually 400-600.)

So I won't go into detail about Zogby's methodology, which you can read about here. I will note, however, that Zogby uses a new technique of inter-active online polling and actually does only 20-40 telephone calls in each state. And many who participate in the surveys are "regulars" who do it all the time. All of that's a little troubling, and the jury is still out on its accuracy.

So before the Republicans get too gleeful, they might want to take into account a scene in the new documentary of the 2004 Kerry campaign, "Inside the Bubble." Zogby's Soundbites blog reports:

It features, among other not-ready-for-prime-time moments ... Kerry message guru Robert Shrum confidently declaring a few days before the 2004 election: "Zogby [a prominent pollster] just announced who's gonna win. Us!"

POSTSCRIPT: Forgot to mention the Senate race, which has Herb Kohl one point ahead of Tommy Thompson (a non-candidate, unless he is unhappy with how much ink he's getting lately) and 8 points up on former Rep. Mark Neumann (is he even thinking about running?)