Thursday, November 17, 2005

If it's not 1968, could it be 1970?

In August, I explored, at some length, the question of whether 2005 is the year 1968 reincarnated. Short answer: Not a perfect match, but close. And, like 1968, it is definitely time to take a stand on the war.

Now comes USA Today with the suggestion that it's really 1970, based on recent polling. Susan Page writes:
[W]hen it comes to public opinion, Americans' attitudes toward Iraq and the course ahead are strikingly similar to public attitudes toward Vietnam in the summer of 1970, a pivotal year in that conflict and a time of enormous domestic unrest.

Some political scientists and historians predict that the Iraq conflict, like the one in Vietnam, will shape American attitudes on foreign policy and the use of military force long after it's over.

"This war is probably a really big deal historically in terms of America's perspective on the world," says John Mueller, a political scientist at Ohio State University. "What you're going to get after this is 'We don't want to do that again — No more Iraqs' just as after Vietnam the syndrome was 'No more Vietnams.' "

In a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll taken Friday through Sunday, more than half of those surveyed wanted to withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq within the next 12 months. In 1970, roughly half of those surveyed wanted to withdraw U.S. troops from Vietnam within 12 months. ( Compare poll results)

In both surveys, about one-third supported withdrawing troops over as many years as needed, and about one in 10 wanted to send more troops.
Finally, there is the embattled vice-president casting aspersions on opponents of the war. In 1969 it was Spiro Agnew, calling Vietnam war critics "an effete corps of impudent snobs who characterize themselves as 'intellectuals.'" Dick Cheney plays the Agnew role this time around, questioning the patriotism, loyalty and motives of those who want the US out of Iraq. Many of us have heard that song before.

If opposition to the war is at 1970 levels, that's encouraging. But remember that it took three more years to get US troops out of Vietnam. The earliest target date anyone has proposed is Dec. 31, 2006, by Sen. Russ Feingold. Meanwhile, 52% of respondents to USA Today's survey want US troops out of Iraq within 12 months -- basically the Feingold target.

Bush has said we will stay in Iraq as long as he's President. That would be a tragic mistake, just as it's tragic that 30 years after we said "No more Vietnams" the U.S. is back in the Big Muddy, with W saying to push on.

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