A surprise in Iowa: Edwards leads

Yes, it's very early, and yes, things can change quickly in presidential politics. But, that disclaimer aside, it is a surprise to find John Edwards with the lead in Iowa, as Chris Cillizza notes in the WashPost.

The Des Moines Register conducts its own polls -- unlike Wisconsin, where the media use whatever numbers someone cooks up and gives them. It found Edwards in the lead, with Hillary Clinton close behind and John Kerry a distant third. Favorite Son Tom Vilsack, Iowa's governor, was fourth with only 10%.

Russ Feingold is at 3%. This is among Dems who say they will attend the party caucuses. Fifty six per cent say they are unsure and unable to rate Feingold positively or negatively, reflecting that he has a long way to go to build name recognition, even among active Dems.

The paper reports:

Experts say it's the first poll showing anyone besides Clinton as the preferred Democrat in the race for the White House.

UPDATE: How accurate is it? Ask the Mystery Pollster.