The Fix and The Spin
Chris Cizzilla of the Washington Post tracks the governor's races on his blog, called The Fix.
He ranks them according to the likelihood the governor's office will change parties in a month.
This week, Wisconsin is #8 on the list, up one notch. It says Repubs are feeling more optimistic, based on recent WISC-TV poll that showed Jim Doyle 6% ahead of Mark Green.
Then there's Michigan, where Gov. Jennifer Granholm, another Dem, has been in a tough race. It drops from #7 to #10 based on recent polling -- which has her with a "mid-single digit" lead. What would a mid-single digit lead be? Like 6%?
The difference is in the spin. Granholm's race was closer, and she has opened up the gap a little, while Doyle's race is seen as tightening. But he's probably as far ahead as she is, and as likely to be re-elected.
Here's the whole list.
UPDATE: Granholm's lead is actually 5 per cent, but she had been tied so gets credit for momentum.