Wednesday, April 12, 2006

Margin of error leads all candidates

The St. Norbert-Wis. Public Radio poll is out.

What can you say about a poll where everything is within the margin of error?

Perhaps that the margin of error is too big?


And even more worthless when you try to look at the primary results from a tiny sample.

The whole thing is basically a disservice to any rational political discussion. However,Mark Green's campaign manager was "incredibly encouraged" at being 8 points down, and Paul Bucher is pretty much declaring victory in the Republican AG's race, although if I read it correctly the sample size is 82, which makes the margin of error about plus or minus 10 per cent. That puts Bucher's 26-7 lead within the margin of error, too.


At 12:00 PM, Blogger nosefornews said...

No fair, Xoff. You understand polling and that takes all the fun out of it. Anybody who looks at a poll without checking the sample size or the margin of error is, well, an idiot.

Polls at this point are basically inside baseball though the true believers always pounce on them if they support their candidate. Of course, they are easy to dismiss if they don't.

The bottom line is that election day is still a long way off. Lots of things seem to be "trending" the Dems way, but they better not take anything for granted and come up with a blueprint for success.

Here's hoping that the party's great minds are hard at work on a strategy. As one of my favorite philosophers once said, "you must cultivate your garden."

Reporting live from the best of all possible worlds...


At 12:10 PM, Blogger TR said...

This poll has to be bogus. I mean, if you look at the answers to the "most important issue facing Wisconsin" question I don't see the war in Iraq anywhere. After the media's coverage of last week's vote, that has to be #1 if not #2, right?

Next time, quote a real poll, Bill.


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