Friday, August 18, 2006

Bush numbers mean trouble for Green

Republicans are touting a Strategic Vision poll today showing the guv's race a dead heat, finding that more believable than one done for WISC-TV which has Gov. Jim Doyle leading Congressman Mark Green 48-38.

There is some doubt among Democrats that Strategic Vision even makes any phone calls, since no one has ever seen any cross-tabs. Having it show up 12 hours after a public poll that has Doyle 10 points up makes it even more suspect. It's just a little too convenient.

Be that as it may, if I were Green I'd be a little concerned if I saw these numbers when there's a Doyle spot on television featuring Green and Bush as the Bobbsey Twins:

1. Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's overall job performance?
Approve 32%
Disapprove 60%
Undecided 8%

2. Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's handling of the economy?
Approve 26%
Disapprove 60%
Undecided 14%

3. Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's handling of the war in Iraq?
Approve 22%
Disapprove 70%
Undecided 8%

11 Comments:

At 9:46 AM, Blogger Dad29 said...

Your thesis implies that Wisconsin voters cannot distinguish between GWB and Cong. Green.

For openers, Green has more hair and does NOT have a Texas accent.

Need more help?

 
At 10:48 AM, Blogger XOut said...

The fact that Doyle has to talk about Green in his campaign ads actually says everything.

Doyle had four-years to earn his negatives (50%). The campaign's attempt to create a negative impression of Green isn't going to work.

As for the quality of WISC-TV's poll - using "random digit dial" to find 'likely' voters is dubious at best. You know that.

 
At 10:59 AM, Blogger Xoff said...

Actually, I know nothing of the sort. Using random digit dial, with a series of questions to screen for likely voters, is a common and acceptable methodology used by most national polling firms who do political work.

 
At 8:04 PM, Blogger Paul_Robeson said...

xout, I don't quite understand how you can so confidently assert that an effort to create a negative impression of Green "isn't going to work."

Right now, Green is still very much a blank slate for most WI voters. Outside his district, he is pretty much an unknown -- perhaps because he really hasn't accomplished much as a Congressman. (Honestly, does he have a signature accomplishment?) Given that gigantic void, and given the public's overall distaste for the GOP Congress, of which Green is a part, I don't think it's going to be too hard for the Doyle campaign to create a negative impression of him.

I mean, how difficult is it going to be to put together a nasty photo montage of Green with Tom Delay, Jack Abramoff, Scott Jensen, and President Bush?

 
At 8:23 PM, Blogger Paul_Robeson said...

xout, since you're apparently a Green supporter, can you give me 5 affirmative reasons (based on his accomplishments as a lawmaker in Madison and DC) to vote for him? By "affirmative," I mean: Go beyond anti-Doyle invective and make an argument for Green on his own merits.

 
At 12:18 AM, Blogger XOut said...

Paul,

You are traveling in the wrong direction. You are asking the wrong question. You want me to provide five reasons why Green appeals to voters? All you need is one – he is not Jim Doyle.

Doyle was never likable, Doyle, throughout his tenure has had a hard-time breaking the trust-barrier. People don’t identify with Doyle, they don’t think of him as good and honest. They never have.

The problem for Doyle is that disconnect. After four years in office he has not connected with the voters and they look at him as a politician – for good reason – because he is.

The disconnect has widened because of travelgate and a general pattern of contributions for government contracts. These issues further the impression of Doyle as a political opportunist fattening his campaign coffers at taxpayer expense.

In November, people want to vote FOR something. They are not going to tally up Green’s votes or even concern themselves with Green’s record. They will ask themselves – can we trust Doyle to work for us? The answer will be no. The next question is, do I like Green? The answer, as you will soon discover, albeit long after you stopped bitching about George Bush and embryonic (my clarification – not yours) stem-cell research, is “Yes.” They will vote FOR a likable Mark Green long before they will vote for the perennial political huckster, the little, smug, con-artist from Harvard – Jim Doyle.

In summary Paul – what you cannot grasp is – Mark Green isn’t going to defeat Jim Doyle with one, two or five ‘good reasons’, Jim Doyle will defeat himself and the next guy in line – will win.

It is that simple.

 
At 12:32 AM, Blogger XOut said...

Xoff - If you really believe in random digit dial - you truly are a hack.

I don't trust any polling by 'self-identified' - 'likely' voters. It just doesn't translate.

The "do you plan to vote in the November election for Governor" methodology isn't valid, unless you specialize in polling trailer parks with people who don't think you know they live in trailer parks when you call.

The universe is filled with lazy idiots who simply will not tell you that they are idiots. They could recite every relevant statistic involving the packers but that doesn’t mean that they are even registered voters, let alone that they are people who voted in the Presidential election. To grab a random telephone number and presume that they are being honest about their intention to vote in November, can only be affirmatively concluded by asking them to name the candidate they intend to vote for (i.e. without giving them the names of the people who will actually be on the ballot).

Good polls are based on good lists - PERIOD.

I am glad, for you sake, that the casino’s are bleeding money and can afford to hire spinners to do their work with a huge margin for error. It fits your aptitude.

 
At 12:55 PM, Blogger Paul_Robeson said...

xout -- So the answer is . . . no, you can't even come up with a SINGLE affirmative reason to vote FOR Mark Green?

Oh, wait, there was one in there -- he's "likable." Gotcha.

I am not saying that Green can't win. I think it's possible. But relying solely on the depth of anti-Doyle sentiment simply isn't going to be enough to get Green to 51%. To get there, he's going to have to offer some credentials and some kind of coherent plan for governing.

Honestly, I hope that the GOP runs a purely anti-Doyle campaign along the lines you've suggested, because it will really appeal to about 35-40% of the voters and totally repulse everybody else.

 
At 7:22 PM, Blogger XOut said...

Paul,

You aren't listening (reading). They don't have to run an anti-Doyle campaign.

A negative campaign will not be helpful for Green. Doyle on the other hand, has little postive to talk about.

 
At 10:16 PM, Blogger XOut said...

Oh... and by the way Paul... read Sunday's Spivak & Bice article. This is the kind of thing is going to continue to hound your boy all the way through to November.

Green doesn't have to go negative, he just needs to stand back and let Jim Doyle be himself. That is what I have been trying to tell you.

You may not like this article and you can dream up rationalizations for why the Journal sucks and is unfair (by the way, as a conservative, I really do know what bias is), but in the meantime, the reality continues to sink in deeper and deeper for the voter... their Governor is a huckster.

 
At 7:07 PM, Blogger Paul_Robeson said...

xout -- I am not trying to pick an argument, honest. But you've got me absolutely stumped here.

I don't mean to over-exaggerate, but it sounds like you're saying that Green:

1.) Doesn't have to offer any affirmative rationale for his candidacy;

and

2.) He doesn't have to "go negative," either (presumably because the Governor simply will implode all on his own).

Partisanship aside, I don't see how anybody -- Republican or Democrat -- can win an election by doing nothing. This might hold doubly true for a candidate who never has run for statewide office previously and who seriously lacks name recognition outside his own district.

But if he wants to state his candidacy purely on the public's perceived blind hatred for the Governor, I think he's going to get his clock cleaned.

 

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