Thursday, October 05, 2006

Gov's race "narrowing?"-- not exactly

WISC-TV in Madison has performed a service by commissioning a series of independent polls on the governor's race.

But it is a disservice to hype the latest numbers:
Poll: Governor's Race Is Narrowing
Doyle Has 6 Percentage Point Lead Over Green

Gov. Jim Doyle's lead over U.S. Rep. Mark Green in the gubernatorial is continuing but has narrowed, according to a WISC-TV poll.

With slightly more than a month from the Nov. 7 election, the survey of 600 likely voters from around the state found that 48 percent said that they would vote for Doyle and 42 percent said that they would support Green.

Green Party candidate Nelson Eisman drew 1 percent.

Nine percent of those polled said that they are undecided. The margin for error for this poll is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Doyle's lead is down from a previous poll last month that had the Democrat with a 9-point lead over his Republican rival, who is a congressman from the Green Bay area. Doyle had 49 percent while Green had 40 percent support. Eisman's support was at 1 percent. Another survey in mid-August had Doyle
The margin of error is plus or minus 4 per cent.

That means Doyle's actual number could be as high as 52 or as low as 44. Green's could be as high as 46 or as low as 38.

So what was the change from last time? Doyle moved 1 per cent, from 49 to 48, well within the 4% margin of error. Green moved 2 per cent, also within the margin.

Basically, it's still a horse race, but the margin is no closer nor wider than it was last time.

I'd take a 6% win any day.

UPDATE: In Michigan, where there's another hot race for governor, a 6% lead was reported as "good news" for Dems. Political Wire:
A pair of EPIC-MRA polls give good news for Democrats in Michigan's gubernatorial and U.S. Senate contests. Despite only 42% of respondents giving Gov. Jennifer Granholm's (D) a positive job performance rating, she currently leads challenger Dick DeVos (R) 46% to 40%.

In the state's U.S. Senate race, Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) is handily beating Mike Bouchard (R), 48% to 35%.
UPDATE 2: Dave Diamond explains how the numbers work. A true public service.

1 Comments:

At 7:28 AM, Blogger Pasta2000 said...

I like the numbers at WSJ.com better.

As of Sept. 28
Doyle: 45.7%
Green: 44.4%
Margin of error: +/- 3.4 points

I'm guessing that most of this polling took place before news got out about the Election Board doing dirty work for Doyle.

The numbers will get even better once the news hits about Doyle's screw up with laws dealing with sex predators.

 

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