Long odds for Mark Green
From Roll Call's Louis Jacobson, via ABC News' Note:
At least eight House Members are expected to seek their state's governorship this cycle, a large number by recent historical standards. Is it a good career move? It depends on how far back you look.
For most of the 1990s, running for governor as a House Member was a bad bet. Between 1990 and 2001, just four of 29 House Members who ran for governor succeeded, according to Congressional Quarterly.
The current crop of contenders, however, is undoubtedly hoping for a climate more like the 2002-2003 campaign cycle. That's when five of eight sitting House Members who tried to win the governorship succeeded: John Baldacci (D-Maine), Rod Blagojevich (D-Ill.), Bob Ehrlich (R-Md.), Ernie Fletcher (R-Ky.) and Bob Riley (R-Ala.).
Conversations with politicos, including several former House Members who mounted unsuccessful bids for governor, cite a litany of obstacles. The most obvious is that House Members represent just a district, not the entire state. . .
And it's not only statewide officials who have an advantage against House Members. When Rep. Mark Green (R-Wis.) runs for governor next year, he'll face Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker in the GOP primary. Despite being a local officeholder, Walker will actually have a constituency that's almost 40 percent bigger than Green's.
Actually, the odds in Wisconsin are even worse. No sitting member of Congress has ever been elected governor of Wisconsin. None. Never. Many have run, but none has been chosen.
CORRECTION. An alert reader points out that Cadwallader Washburn, in fact, was elected governor in 1871, while a member of the House. That is what we call the exception that proves the rule. I stand corrected. Washburn, by the way, was slated by the party bosses in return for a promise he would never run against either of the sitting U.S. Senators.
posted by xoff @ 1:05 PM
2 comments
2 Comments:
Actually, Mr. Christofferson, you are incorrect. Wisconsin has elected a sitting Republican Congressman governor exactly once. Governor Cadwallader C. Washburn (1872-74) represented the 2nd District from 1855-61 and the 6th District 1867-71. Further, Wisconsin has elected former Republican Congressmen to the governorship twice. It would be more accurate to say that Wisconsin has never elected a Milwaukee County Executive governor.
Exactly how do you figure Walker has 40% larger constituency? Last time I checked vote turnout, Green actually had larger numbers (the number of people who turned out to vote in each candidate's respective elections). I had looked this info up because I wanted to know if the candidates spent no money on improving their name ID before the primary (assuming they might want to keep some for the general election), what might be the minimum vote support? Green has more core voters. Granted, the Gov's race is different - but both candidates have a state-wide name ID problem (relative to Doyle). I might argue that up in the north woods Green has much better name ID (not to mention he is very well liked). I've lived in both areas and am familiar with both candidates. At this point, I feel Green is in a better position...but let's how the endorsements and money come in. Keep up the good work, Bill.
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